Why subscribe?
Markets don’t fail once.
They fail the same way, repeatedly, in different places.
The Bottom-Up Bulletin is built around tracking one recurring error: when growth narratives move faster than physical systems, capital cycles, or balance sheets can actually support.
That mismatch plays out over quarters and years, as models are revised, capital is reallocated, and reality asserts itself unevenly. The value is understanding how the unwind evolves.
Subscribing means following that process, not just reading the initial argument.
What the work actually does
The research here is about staying properly calibrated as narratives collide with constraint.
Each piece starts with bottom-up operating data. Think decline rates, replacement requirements, supply chains, balance-sheet capacity, throughput limits and asks a simple question:
Where is the market assuming flexibility that doesn’t exist?
That framework applies across cycles and sectors. Energy, AI infrastructure, fiber, power equipment, offshore services different industries, same mistake. The work continues as the implications show up (or don’t) in pricing, behavior, and capital allocation.
Why this is ongoing, not a one-off
A single post can tell you what is wrong with a dominant view.
It can’t tell you when, where, or how the consequences surface.
Subscribers get:
Continuity as themes develop, stall, or re-emerge
Follow-ups as data changes and assumptions are tested in real time
Live discussions focused on sequencing and second-order effects, not conclusions
The point is not to be right immediately. It’s to avoid being wrong in the same way the market often is.
Who this is for
This is for readers who:
Care about how real systems behave under constraint
Understand that timing and capital cycles matter more than narratives
Prefer frameworks they can reuse over one-time insights
It’s not for readers looking for:
Daily updates
Trade alerts
A finished answer delivered once and forgotten
If you’re interested in tracking how structural mismatches resolve over time, not just identifying them, this is designed for you.
